This week after the Kansas City Chiefs marched downfield and scored on the first drive of overtime, thus sending the Buffalo Bills home without having a chance to possess the ball, there has been considerable commentary and controversy surrounding the NFL’s overtime rules; (no less than the Wall Street Journal and NPR have weighed in). Cries of unfairness and injustice! Demands that the rule must be changed! The rule states: “Both teams must have the opportunity to possess the ball once during the extra period, unless the team that receives the opening kickoff scores a touchdown on its initial possession, in which case it is the winner.”
The odds of an offensive TD on a given drive are approximately 1 in 5; 21.12%.
The odds of a defensive TD on a given drive are approximately 1 in 100; 1.26%.
So, by receiving the kickoff, (by virtue of a coin flip), a given team is 16.73 times more likely than the other to win on that first possession. And in the playoffs I would conjecture this number is somewhat higher because in theory these are above average teams. And furthermore, the odds favor the team who receives the first kickoff, even when they do not score on that first possession. It does seem a bit lopsided. And this, coupled with the Kansas City Chiefs being on the other side of the rule three years ago in a playoff game against the New England Patriots, will likely lead to a change in the rule. In the NPR article, Philadelphia sports reporter Taryn Hatcher was quoted saying, “NFL overtime rules are so trash, which is honestly an insult to trash.”
As said, by creating an uproar many believe there is a reasonable chance the rule will be changed to allow for more equitable opportunity. Equitable opportunity. We can reasonably propose equitable opportunity to the NFL, but it frequently appears to be a truly novel concept in the arena of social justice. Though I am a football fan, and I do agree the NFL overtime rule should be changed, (as do many members of the Kansas City Chiefs), I was struck on Monday by not only the quantity of commentary but by the passion felt for this obvious abuse, when, with not much research I found similar numbers illustrating a bigger injustice that has been going on much, much longer. This is from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), as quoted from brookings.edu: “three-generation poverty is over 16 times higher among Black adults than white adults (21.3 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively). In other words, one in five Black Americans are experiencing poverty for the third generation in a row, compared to just one in a hundred white Americans.”
In poverty’s overtime, Black Americans are winning. I feel that should be said one more time: In poverty’s overtime, Black Americans are winning.
To complicate further, according to the Congressional Research Service, a black child is more than 10 times more likely to be born into the bottom 20% than the top 20%, compared to a white child at 3.7 times or an Asian American child at 1.4 times. To the child, the circumstance they come to is the flip of a coin, and as pointed out by the overtime controversy, if it is necessary to flip a coin we should do what we can to provide equitable opportunity moving forward.
But, according to this study quoted in Vox, white children are more than 4 times more likely and Asian-American children are more than 10 times more likely than Black children to move from the bottom quintile of income distribution to the top quintile. This does not reflect equitable opportunity.
Unfairness? Injustice? Traditions and rules that are an insult to trash? Yes! Where is the uproar? Where is the demand for equitable opportunity? Where is the rules committee?
The numbers, the facts, tell us a story of how difficult it can be to overcome circumstance that is not of one’s own making or choice. If you can see the injustice of the NFL overtime rule, then you must see the inequity of race that is built into our American way. Or is it really more fair that Black Americans are born fighting such odds than that your NFL team is sent home from the playoffs? I started to ask, are we really this superficial? But I believe the relevant question might be, why are we this superficial? Some might claim that the parents make the circumstance, but there are so many avenues to go down, so many numbers and facts and real life examples throughout our entire history, up to and including today, that show how odds have always been more highly stacked against Black Americans.
As a nation, we were founded on these words: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal.” And as a nation we have failed to live up to those words, but that is not the point. When we have a vision, an objective, we will never attain it in its perfection; we are meant to work toward it. Those who are disappointed that we have not lived up to those words must get over it so they may expend their effort toward improvement. The NFL overtime rule is perhaps a way to wake up a few sleepwalkers and redirect the attention of a few whiners to perhaps work together toward “a more perfect Union.” And if along the way we’re able to get the rules committee to change the overtime rule? Great! Because equal should not exclude those who start out on defense; which I suppose does describe Black Americans.